NABUCCO PIPELINE

Northern Iraqi gas production from the Pearl Production Co. could be available in five years to feed into the Nabucco gas pipeline and supply Europe, Austrian oil company OMV AG (OMV.VI) said Friday.

"Pearl is very important because they have access to a major gas field. It has the capacity to produce an important part of the supply of Nabucco," said the company's Chief Executive Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer at a press briefing in London. "The gas is there and could be available in five years."

OMV owns a 10% stake in Pearl.

The 3,300 kilometer Nabucco pipeline is an ambitious project that aims to open a new supply route for Central Asian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. The project has the backing of the European Union, which sees it as a way to reduce dependency on imports of Russian natural gas.

OMV, Germany's RWE AG (RWE.XE), Turkey's Botas, Bulgarian Energy Holding, Romania's Transgaz and Hungary's MOL Nyrt. (MOL.BU) are members of the Nabucco consortium. They plan to decide whether to proceed with the project in the fourth quarter of 2010, with operation due to commence in 2014.

Gas fields in northern Iraq could be developed in several years and linked fairly quickly to Turkey through an inexpensive feeder pipeline, Ruttenstorfer said. He added that he is confident that political tensions over energy exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq will have been resolved within the time frame of the Nabucco project.

The economic downturn that has left Europe with a surplus of gas has not fundamentally changed the viability of Nabucco, said Ruttenstorfer. "We are going to have an oversupply of gas in Europe for the next three to five years," he said, but after that the region will see its need for gas imports rising again.

The downturn has also had little impact on the projected EUR7.9 billion cost of the pipeline, said Ruttenstorfer.

Partners in the Nabucco consortium will need to secure around half of the pipelines planned 31 billion cubic meter a year capacity in order for the project to get the go-ahead as scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2010.

In addition to Iraq, around half this gas will probably have to come from Azerbaijan, so the decision from BP PLC (BP), Azeri state oil company Socar and their partners on whether to proceed with the second phase of the Shah Deniz gas project will be crucial, Ruttenstorfer said.

Many Nabucco consortium members are talking to the Azeris about gas supply, he said.

Ankara and Baku should resolve issues related to the price for natural gas in order to move forward with the Nabucco gas pipeline, U.S. officials said.

Richard Morningstar, the U.S. special envoy for Eurasian energy, warned that Nabucco companies could look for alternative options if Baku and Ankara cannot resolve their issues, the Azeri Press Agency reports.

"A failure to find an agreement would lead energy companies to search for different routes," he said.

Baku has considered raising the price of the gas purchased by Ankara from the Shah Deniz gas field.

The offshore Shah Deniz field has the capacity to produce 318 billion feet of gas from its initial phase, with another 706 billion cubic feet expected from Phase 2 by 2012.

Partners to the Nabucco gas pipeline for the European Union aim to diversify the regional energy sector by courting Central Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers to the project.

Morningstar told an audience at the European Policy Center in Brussels that outstanding price negotiations were moving forward, but the importance of a resolution could not be underestimated.

"We strongly encourage Turkey and Azerbaijan to agree on pricing terms because the agreement is needed to win the trust of the participating companies in the Nabucco pipeline project," he said.

Nabucco partners are eyeing Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iraq as potential suppliers for the project. Morningstar stressed that Iranian gas is not a consideration.

"Territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is as sacred as our own integrity.

The signed protocols will promote the restoration of relations between Armenia and Turkey and pave a way to peace and ensure territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The protocols have already been submitted to the parliament and it is for parliament to decide when to ratify them", ANS-TV quoted Turkish FM Ahmed Davutoghlu as saying answering the question of the Turkish deputy from opposition People’s Republican Party Janan Aritman.

"The events that occurred in the Caucasus in August 2008, proved that the situation threatening to security, stability and interaction, is prevailing in the region. In this view, we have proposed the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform and invited all the countries which are parties to the conflict, including Armenia, to join the platform. We have initiated a dialogue with Armenia which has accelerated recently. The Turkish-Armenian protocols signed on October 10 are not harmful for the Azerbaijani interests", he said.

Janan Aritman asked whether Nabucco project will be stopped with the opening of the Turkish- Armenian border. When answering the question, Davutoghlu said Nabucco project has nothing to do with normalization of relations with Armenia.

Kazakhstan wants to leave politics out of the equation and make a profit when dealing with the transport of hydrocarbons, the country’s foreign minister told five visiting western journalists at his lavish ministry in Astana. “The fundamental principle from which we are proceeding on exporting our resources is the principle of economic feasibility - no politics there. We have exported and will be exporting in any direction that is profitable for us,” Kanat Saudabayev said on 23 November. He was responding to a question from New Europe on whether the energy-rich former Soviet republic had any preference over Russian, Chinese or EU-bound projects competing for its rich oil and gas resources.
The relatively new foreign minister reminded that the Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline is due to be inaugurated on December 15 and there is already an oil pipeline from western Kazakhstan to western China. Kazakhstan also exports its oil through a whole system of pipelines running through Russia (CPC). Moreover, Kazakhstan ships oil through the Aktau-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline system.
“Given that we will be producing 170 million tons of oil out of which 130 million tons of oil will be available for exports it is in our deep interests to see the multiple export pipelines realized,” Saudabayev said. The bulk of the new volumes would come from Kashagan’s massive oil field, which plans to start commercial production around 2015. “Kazakhstan is and has been turning into a more significant player on the energy market for the European consumers and we will continue to export oil resources through those means that are profitable for us. Kazakhstan as a partner has always been distinguished by its reliability and predictability,” Saudabayev said.
The question is how this oil will be transported. There are several options, including the expansion of the CPC pipeline to Novorossiysk and also using the route to China.
Regarding the issue of bypassing the crowded Bosporus, the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline seems to have stalled. Russia seems to prefer the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline route through Turkey due to foot-dragging by Bulgaria but also to lure Turkey into supporting the South Stream gas pipeline over Nabucco, Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib bank, told New Europe from Moscow.
“I assume that both by-pass pipes will eventually be built to cut congestion in the Bosporus. Russia will want to send more shipping with non-oil cargos via the narrow channel as it expands the economy and operations at Novorossiysk port. So it needs to divert as much oil into pipes as possible as quickly as possible,” Weafer said. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev supported Samsun–Ceyhan during his latest visit to Turkey.
Asked by New Europe if Kazakhstan was economically interested in the Nabucco pipeline, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Budget Planning Bakhyt Sultanov said that his country is interested in different ways to export its oil and gas resources. “In the case of Nabucco the main question is resources. If we’ll have resources we can sell through Russia, through Nabucco, though our partners,” he said at the sidelines of a forum to discuss Kazakhstan’s OSCE chairmanship and its priorities.
For now, it seems as if Nabucco has been out-maneuvered by Russia and China and is in real danger of having nowhere to turn to for gas supplies. “The commercial case for South Stream and Nabucco looks increasingly unsound,” Weafer said. “They are both now political projects.”

DUBAI OVERBLOWN

Dubai media and several business leaders rallied to support the Gulf Arab emirate's efforts to manage its debt crisis, saying problems have been exaggerated and the impact of restructuring overblown.

Riad Kamal, chief executive of Arabtec ARTC.DU, said he had no doubt about Dubai's commitment to settle its debt.

"Dubai should be given time to restructure its debt. I'm not going to lose sleep over this issue," he said.

The crisis began on Wednesday when Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates federation, asked to delay payment on billions of dollars of debt issued by conglomerate Dubai World and its main property subsidiary Nakheel, developer of palm tree-shaped islands that once attracted celebrities and the super-rich.

"I am very relaxed. Dubai has never defaulted and it will not default," Khalaf Al Habtoor, chairman of Al Habtoor Group, told Reuters by phone. "I am confident the government will meet its commitments and help the companies."

An executive at Emirates NBD ENBD.DU, one of the region's largest banks, also sought to minimise the impact, saying: "It's business as usual and there's nothing to worry about."

Nevertheless, Dubai's share index fell 5.9 percent in early trading, while DP World DPW.DI plunged 14.9 percent when UAE markets opened for the first time since the debt repayment delay was announced. Abu Dhabi's bourse also declined, losing 7.1 percent to 2,703 points.

The president of Emirates airline told London's Sunday Telegraph in an interview that he was shocked by the global fallout, but said: "Dubai will navigate itself out of this, as will we." He said the carrier would not be affected.

The English-daily Khaleej Times newspaper said the Dubai government had taken a hard look at the way Dubai Inc. operates, and will fix what has not worked.

"The need to restructure Dubai World is for real, and the decision to go ahead with it indicates maturity on the part of the emirate's decision-makers," the paper said in an editorial.

Khaleej Times defended the goverment from critics who said the announcement, made just before a four-day Eid al-Adha holiday, had undermined Dubai's credibility and transparency. "The timing of the announcement of a possible six-month delay in repaying the group's debt can be debated by market-makers, but not the intention behind it," it wrote.

OVERBLOWN

Some bankers and investors also believe last week's Dubai World restructuring announcement was blown out of proportion.

"The crisis itself has been exaggerated. It is very much localised in one sector and one group. It has been escalated to a much bigger issue," Suresh Kumar, chief executive of Emirates NBD capital said.

Ajman Bank AJBNK.DU, one of the UAE's smallest banks, said it would pursue its plan to open a Dubai branch in December.

"Since the start of the global crisis, this is not the first time a postponement has been announced in a world economy like Dubai," Ajman Bank's acting CEO Ali Alshaqoosh Al Mueen told Reuters. "The decision will certainly have been taken after a thorough review of all resulting benefits and outcomes."

Some executives at international banks active in the region also voiced confidence in Dubai.

Michael Geoghegan, HSBC Group chief executive, said in a statement at the weekend he was "confident that the leadership of Dubai and the UAE will overcome any short-term issues they face, which appear to have been somewhat sensationalised, and continue to lay the foundations for sustainable growth."

Mounir Husseini, Deutsche Bank's chief country officer for the UAE and Qatar, said in an email statement: "It is clear to me that the leadership of Dubai, supported by Abu Dhabi, is committed to taking the right steps for the UAE."

Amid a global financial-market rout, Dubai's announcement Wednesday that it would seek to delay debt payments represents the latest setback for the city-state's ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

Last week's market mayhem was compounded by a lack of transparency from Dubai over the standstill request. A five-paragraph statement from the Dubai Department of Finance provided few details. A spokesman for the department said he couldn't comment further. A spokesman for the ruler's court didn't respond to a request for comment.

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Associated Press

Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, front right on Nov. 15, was briefed as Dubai World's troubles emerged.

Late Thursday night, Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, a senior Dubai finance official and the chairman of the Emirates airline, said in a statement that the standstill announcement had been carefully planned and promised more details this week. "This is a sensible business decision," he said.

Over the last several decades, Dubai's debt piled up as government-related companies borrowed to fund development at home and acquisitions abroad. Bankers and credit analysts assumed government support from Sheik Mohammed -- and from the federal government in Abu Dhabi -- if they ever overextended.

But when the global financial crisis hit, foreign investors fled Dubai's property market, a pillar of the economy. Unease over Dubai's debt turned into global concern, and the cost of insuring Dubai debt against default started to rise sharply. Developers, many of them state-owned, saw their cash flow disappear. Buyers, who could put as little as 10% down, stopped paying installments. Builders started complaining about missed invoices.

In February, Dubai orchestrated a novel $20 billion bond program, of which the first $10 billion tranche was fully subscribed by the U.A.E. central bank.

Dubai said it would use the money to meet its own debt obligations and unpaid bills by developers. The U.A.E. offered more, but Dubai turned down the offer, according to one person familiar with the situation.

But just as investors started to breathe easier because of the big show of federal support, Sheik Mohammed dumped his new finance chief with no explanation.

Still, Dubai made its debt payments on time. In June, Dubai World, the biggest of Dubai's corporate entities, brought in restructuring outfit Alix Partners Ltd. to advise on an overhaul.

In mid-October, Dubai World said it would shed thousands of jobs and launch a major cost-cutting effort. Selling assets quickly wasn't a real option. Many of the company's businesses were still valuable but illiquid, according to a person familiar with the situation. The company wanted to avoid a fire sale, this person said.

Amid the restructuring effort, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, the chairman, was aloof, according to this person. His deputy, Jamal bin Thaniah, appointed chief executive in October, took on a more active role, this person said. Mr. Sulayem hasn't responded to requests for comment. A spokesman for Dubai World said he wasn't available.

A $3.5 billion sukuk, or Islamic bond, was coming due in December. While Dubai World signaled in the spring that a debt restructuring was an option, investors and analysts continued to expect a bailout.

In a letter to employees of Dubai World earlier this month, Mr. Sulayem said the Dubai government had assured the company "full support as an iconic company serving its role in the government's vision for the future."

A Dubai World spokesman declined to comment on the letter, except to say the company would continue to communicate with staff about the restructuring. "A restructuring process has been under way for some time and it continues," he said.

Earlier this month, Dubai's top officials gathered for a meeting of Sheik Mohammed's royal court, according to a person familiar with the situation. At Zabeel Palace, surrounded by manicured gardens, statues of prancing horses, and flittering peacocks, Sheik Mohammed was briefed on the extent of Dubai World's troubles, this person said.

In the days that followed, Sheik Mohammed announced the removal of several top economic advisers from key positions. Then on Wednesday, Dubai announced it had raised $5 billion in debt commitments from two Abu Dhabi-controlled banks. Investors interpreted the move as another indication that the federal government would come to Dubai's rescue if needed. Two hours later, Dubai came out with its standstill announcement.

U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent in a truncated session on Friday as a possible debt default by a Dubai state-owned conglomerate led to fresh concerns about the global financial system.

The sell-off was broad, with selling concentrated mainly in the financial and commodity-linked sectors as investors trimmed positions in areas of the market most sensitive to economic uncertainty.

That hit stocks like aluminum producer Alcoa Inc , down 2.6 percent, and Bank of America , down 3 percent.

But after a slide of more than 2 percent at the open, the flight to less risky assets seemed to be subsiding, helping the major U.S. stock indexes ease back up off their lows. The U.S. dollar, which had jumped sharply as investors looked for a safe haven, pared gains and commodity prices stabilized.

The news out of the Middle East coincided with the desire by many investors to lock in 20 percent year-to-date gains in the S&P 500 after a terrible year in 2008.

"It is at least an early indication of whether investors believe this is one-time bad news or the tip of something really bad," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "Right now, it looks like investors are taking the optimistic stance."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 154.48 points, or 1.48 percent, to end at 10,309.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 19.14 points, or 1.72 percent, to 1,091.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 37.61 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,138.44.

For the week, the Dow dipped 0.1 percent, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4 percent.

Volume was light on the day after Thanksgiving. The U.S. stock market shut on Friday at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT), which was three hours shy of its normal closing bell, but the number of declining stocks still towered over those advancing.