Thursday, February 26, 2009

JPMorgan now cutting up to 14,000 jobs

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) said it is cutting up to 14,000 jobs, more than previously disclosed, as it tries to reduce costs in the face of a slumping economy and higher credit losses.

The second-largest U.S. bank on Thursday said it now expects to shed as many 12,000 jobs from integrating the former Washington Mutual Inc (WAMUQ.PK), up from 9,200 announced in December. It also expects to cut up to 2,000 investment banking jobs.

JPMorgan announced the cuts in an all-day presentation to investors. The reductions are intended to help the New York-based lender weather the current economic turmoil, as its customers struggle with falling house prices, tight credit and increasing mortgage and credit card defaults.

Financial companies have announced close to 350,000 job cuts since August 2007, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has said.

JPMorgan expects $2.75 billion of savings from Washington Mutual, offset by $750 million of new investments. Retail banking chief Charlie Scharf expects most of the savings by the end of 2009, sooner than originally thought.

The bank in September paid $1.9 billion for the banking units of Washington Mutual, the largest U.S. bank or thrift ever to fail. It is shutting several hundred branches, but plans to open 120 new branches this year. It has more than 5,000 branches, up from 539 as recently as 2003.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan's investment bank expects to reduce its 28,000-person staff to between 26,000 and 27,000 by year-end, with cutbacks focused in technology and infrastructure, the unit's co-chief executive, Steve Black, said. Staffing could fall further if market conditions worsen, though it is "hard to imagine" a worse year for the unit than 2008, he said.

On Monday, JPMorgan unexpectedly cut its dividend 87 percent to help save $5 billion a year and achieve Chief Executive Jamie Dimon's goal of a "fortress" balance sheet. The bank got $25 billion last fall from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

In afternoon trading, JPMorgan shares were up $1.82, or 8.4 percent, at $23.55 on the New York Stock Exchange. The KBW Bank Index .BKX of large U.S. lenders was up 6.3 percent.

HOME EQUITY, CREDIT CARDS UNDER PRESSURE

JPMorgan told investors that excluding Washington Mutual, it expects losses of $1 billion to $1.4 billion in each quarter this year from home equity loans to more creditworthy borrowers.

It said as many as 41 percent these borrowers will owe more than their homes are worth by the end of 2010, up from 27 percent at the end of 2008.

Scharf said California's housing market is showing signs of a bottom in home price deterioration, but Florida's is not. He also said that "we know New York is going to deteriorate.

He said losses on loans made as the housing boom was cresting "seem to be leveling out, at very high rates.... There will be an end in sight, just figuring out where it is not the easiest thing as we sit here today."

Housing problems and rising unemployment are also driving higher losses in JPMorgan's credit card business and may result in lower sales volume. Executives expect card losses to increase "materially" and are preparing for a 9 percent U.S. unemployment rate by year-end.

"The American consumer feels much poorer than in previous recessions," credit card chief Gordon Smith said.

JPMorgan maintained its first-quarter outlook for a 7 percent net charge-off rate in card services.

New home sales plunge 10.2% to record low Supply of unsold homes rises to record-high 13.3 months

Sales were down 48.2% compared with a year earlier, the government reported, an indication that the downturn in the housing market was still accelerating as the recession headed into its second year.
Sales were weaker than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a sales pace of about 320,000. See Economic Calendar.
Builders cut their median sales prices by a record 9.9% in January compared with December in a bid to move unsold homes. Median sales prices are down 13.5% in the past year, the largest year-over-year decline in 38 years. The average sales price has fallen a record 17.6% in the past year.
Builders are faced with intense competition from foreclosures and distressed sales of older homes. Buyers are faced with declining wealth and an uncertain labor market, offsetting lower mortgage rates that are improving affordability.
Inventories of unsold homes fell by 3.1% to 342,000, the 13th consecutive decline. However, sales are falling even faster. The inventory at the end of January represented a record-high 13.3 month supply at the January sales pace. Nearly half the homes for sale have been completed.
The builders' overstock "will keep prices falling for the rest of this year at least," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes fell to a 12-year low in January. See full story.
Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions and large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn't sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in January, for instance, was plus or minus 15.4%. Read the full government report.
The government says it can take up to five months to establish a new trend in sales. Over the past five months, sales have been on a 374,000 annual pace, 42% slower than a year earlier.
In all of 2008, 483,000 homes were sold down, from 776,000 in 2007 and 1.05 million in 2006.
The release was the third economic report of the day that was weaker than expected. "It's getting uglier by the day," said Harm Bandholz, an economist for UniCredit Markets.
In other reports, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to a 27-year high of 667,000 while a record 5.1 million were collecting state unemployment checks. See full story.
Also, the Commerce Department said orders for durable goods dropped 5.2% in January, a record sixth decline in a row as U.S. factories suffer from falling demand from consumers, businesses, and foreign markets. See full story.
Details
Sales fell in three of four regions, led by a 28% decline in the West to a record low 59,000. Sales fell 6.5% in the South and fell 5.6% in the Midwest. Sales rose 12.5% in the Northeast, plus or minus 93%.
Inventories fell 3.1% overall. Inventories of completed homes dropped 4%, inventories of homes under construction fell 5%, and inventories of homes yet to be started were flat. Completed homes represented 49% of all homes for sale, up from 40% a year ago.

Shares of student lenders fall on Obama proposal

Shares of SLM Corp. and other student lenders plunged Thursday after President Barack Obama proposed cutting the role of private industry from the federal government's college loan program.

There are currently two parallel systems for college loans - students can borrow directly from the government, or take out loans from banks and other private lenders that are subsidized by the government. In his budget proposal for 2010, Obama asks Congress to shift the entire system to direct government loans and eliminate subsidies to banks. The move would save more than $4 billion a year, according to the Obama administration.

The current system has "needlessly cost taxpayers billions of dollars" and has subjected students to "uncertainty because of turmoil in the financial markets," the proposal said.

Shares of SLM Corp. (nyse: SLM - news - people ), better known as Sallie Mae, sank $3.16, or 38 percent, to $5.23 in afternoon trading.

Student Loan Corp. (nyse: STU - news - people )'s stock dropped $12.63, or 24 percent, to $40.51. Nelnet Inc. shares slid 51 percent, or $5.44, to $5.30.

In a statement issued Thursday, SLM noted it worked closely with the federal government last year to ensure students access to federal loans with no increase in cost to taxpayers.

"As more details emerge in the weeks and months ahead, we will continue to work with the administration and Congress to implement the best solution for students, schools and taxpayers," the Reston, Va.-based company said in the statement.

Representatives from Nelnet and Student Loan Corp., a unit of Citigroup Inc. (nyse: C - news - people ), were not immediately available for comment.

Even if Obama's proposal doesn't become law, it suggests Sallie Mae and other student lenders will face continuous threats under the administration, FBR Capital Market analyst Matt Snowling wrote in a note to clients.

Snowling lowered his price target on SLM shares to $13, down from $20, to reflect the possibility that Sallie Mae could turn into a servicer and debt collector for the government. He kept an "Outperform" rating on the stock, which indicates he thinks it will perform better than shares of its peers in the next 12 to 18 months and that investors should buy the shares at its current price.

About $60 billion - nearly half of all public and private student aid money - comes via the federal student loan program.

Last year, Congress made substantial cuts to student lender subsidies, but did not eliminate them.

The debate already has shifted in some ways. Experts point out that during the recent credit crisis, the government stepped in to prop up the subsidized lending program, so in practice the two programs already are merging.

Obama's first federal budget totals $3.6 trillion and lays out a far-reaching agenda. The proposal is already drawing fierce political opposition, but Democrats control both the House and Senate.

In addition to the changes in the college loan program, the budget includes ambitious initiatives concerning energy, health care and climate change.

India Has Acted ‘Aggressively’ to Protect Economy, Bansal Says

The Reserve Bank of India has acted aggressively to protect the economy from the adverse impact of the global economic meltdown, junior finance minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said today.

The central bank slashed its overnight lending rate, or repurchase rate four times since mid-October, to a record low of 5.5 percent. It also reduced the reverse-repurchase rate twice to 4 percent. Industrial output shrank 2 percent in December from a year earlier, the most in almost 16 years. The statistics office said this month the economy may expand 7.1 percent in the year ending March 31, the slowest pace since 2003.

India’s central bank has “acted aggressively and pre- emptively on monetary policy accommodation,” Bansal said in a written reply to a question in parliament in New Delhi today.

The Reserve Bank of India also reduced the cash reserve ratio, or the amount of money lenders need to set aside to cover deposits, four times since mid-October to 5 percent, from 9 percent, freeing up cash at banks.

Since October, the government’s stimulus packages and interest-rate cuts by the central bank have added $75 billion, or 7 percent of GDP, to the economy, according to the central bank.

“The endeavor of the Reserve Bank of India has been to provide ample rupee liquidity, ensure comfortable dollar liquidity and maintain a monetary policy environment conducive for the continued flow of credit to productive sectors at reasonable cost,” Bansal said.

Stimulus, Deficit

The government on Feb. 24 lowered the excise duty to 8 percent from 10 percent, and reduced the service tax to 10 percent from 12 percent, to help revive demand and arrest the slide in factory output. The 4 percentage-point cut in central value added tax in December was extended beyond March 31.

India said on Feb. 16 that its budget deficit may widen to 6 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending March 31, more than double its target, or 3.26 trillion rupees ($65 billion).

The fiscal deficit including the liability on account of bonds issued to oil companies and fertilizer makers will be at 4.22 trillion rupees, Bansal said in response to a separate question.

“The perception of lack of credit availability may be attributed to reduced flow of funds from non-bank sources, notably the capital market and external commercial borrowings,” he said.

India’s Economy Probably Expanded at Slowest Pace Since 2004

India’s economy probably grew at the slowest pace since 2004 last quarter as the global recession saw exports decline for the first time in seven years.

Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 6.1 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from a year earlier after a 7.6 percent gain in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast of 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The statistics agency’s numbers are due today at 11 a.m. in New Delhi.

Policy makers across Asia are slashing interest rates and spending more as the worst financial crisis since World War II hits the region’s overseas sales and saps consumer demand. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, who has reduced the central bank’s key policy rates to a record low since October, says there’s “certainly room” for further cuts.

“India’s growth momentum is easing and policy makers must act to support the economy,” said Sherman Chan, a Sydney-based economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “The central bank needs to ensure ample liquidity and low interest rates.”

The Reserve Bank of India has responded to the deepening global slump by reducing its repurchase rate by 3.5 percentage points to 5.5 percent and the reverse repurchase rate to 4 percent from 6 percent. It also cut the cash reserve ratio, or the proportion of deposit lenders must set aside as cash, to 5 percent from 9 percent.

Fiscal Stimulus

To provide fiscal support to the economy, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government has cut taxes and increased spending on roads, ports and other infrastructure. Acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee this week slashed excise duty across the board to 8 percent from 10 percent and the service tax to 10 percent from 12 percent, besides extending a 4 percentage point cut in the central value-added tax announced in December beyond March 31.

The combined stimulus from interest-rate cuts, increased government outlays and lower taxes totals almost $80 billion, or 7 percent of India’s gross domestic product, according to the central bank.

Still, the fiscal spending is straining the budget deficit, which the finance ministry forecasts will widen to 6 percent of GDP in the year ending March 31 from a target of 2.5 percent.

The government expects borrowings next year to increase to a record 3.62 trillion rupees ($72 billion). Indian government debt accounts for 80 percent of the nation’s GDP.

The yield on benchmark government bonds due in 2018 has gained 131 basis points to 6.55 percent this year as additional debt sales sapped demand for the securities.

Credit Rating

Standard & Poor’s said Feb. 24 that the nation’s credit rating will be cut to junk as government debt is reaching a level that’s “not sustainable.” S&P reduced India’s rating outlook to negative from stable.

Mukherjee said the rating company’s move was “not unexpected,” adding that the global downturn “requires extraordinary steps from the government.”

The government, whose five-year term comes to an end in May, wants to prop up growth and reduce unemployment as it prepares to face general elections. Already, companies have cut about half a million jobs in the three months ended December, according to the labor ministry.

Apollo Tyres Ltd., the Indian tire maker partly owned by Michelin & Cie, said this month it plans to cut its workforce by 15 percent, or 1,500 employees. A survey of 50 textile companies by the Apparel Export Promotion Council of India released this month found they slashed 14 percent of their workers in November.

Slowing Growth

The government expects economic growth to slow to 7.1 percent in the year to March 31, the weakest since 2003. Even though that pace makes India the second-fastest after China among the world’s largest economies, it’s not enough to generate jobs in a country where the number of people looking for employment increases by more than 10 million each year.

Growth of 7 percent “ain’t good enough,” said Duncan Campbell, director of the International Labour Organization’s economic analysis department. Campbell forecasts India needs at least 10 percent growth a year for a one percent increase in employment.

Still, “India has such a strong democratic system that there may not be a threat of social upheaval like in China,” said Campbell. “There’s an election coming up, and the people can express their disapproval by tossing out the government.”

India’s GDP Forecasts


-------------------------------------------
GDP YoY%
Company Oct-Dec
-------------------------------------------
Median 6.1%
Average 6.0%
High 6.9%
Low 5.2%
Number of Estimates 21
-------------------------------------------
Action Economics 6.5%
Anand Rathi Securities 5.7%
Axis Bank Ltd. 5.4%
CARE Ratings 6.3%
CRISIL Ltd. 6.0%
DBS Group 6.2%
Dun & Bradstreet Info. 6.1%
HSBC Singapore 6.6%
ICICI Bank 6.0%
ICICI Securities 6.9%
IDBI Gilts Ltd. 5.7%
Inst. of Economic Growth 6.8%
JPMorgan Chase Bank 5.7%
Kotak Mahindra Bank 6.2%
Kotak Securities Ltd. 5.7%
Macquarie Capital Securities 5.5%
Moody’s Economy.com Inc. 6.1%
Nomura International (HK) 6.2%
Reuters IFR 5.2%
Standard Chartered Bank 5.3%
UBS 6.5%

Monday, February 23, 2009

AmEx Offers Some Holders $300 To Pay And Leave

American Express Co. (AXP) is offering a $300 incentive for customers to cancel their accounts as the card issuer and payments processor grapples with surging loan delinquencies and reduced card-member spending.

The move comes as credit rating firms have warned that rising credit-card delinquencies could push the industry's charge-off rate into the double-digits by the end of the year from December's record level of 7.7% amid higher unemployment and a bleak economic outlook.

"It's a tool that has been used in the past to motivate borrowers to close off balances," says Scott Valentin, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. Valentin cited an instance some years ago where National City offered $200 to borrowers who would close their home equity lines of credit.

"It's not necessarily cheap, but it is effective," says Valentin. "The key is to identify the high-risk borrowers."

American Express is making the offer to a "relatively small" number of credit- card holders. It is intended to give them an incentive to pay down debt with the company and help them manage their finances, said spokesman Molly Faust. American Express has 44.2 million credit cards in force among U.S. consumers and small businesses.

The offer is also a stark contrast to previous incentives, like frequent-flyer miles and cash-back deals, offered by card issuers to encourage consumers to open an account or spend more.

American Express is offering a $300 prepaid card, which can be used anywhere American Express is accepted, to certain customers who pay off their entire balance between March 1 and the end of April. Enrolling in the deal automatically cancels the customer's account, regardless of whether the borrower successfully pays off the balance.

A potential problem for the company "is adverse selection," says Valentin. " The risk is that the ones that take $300 and close their balances do have the ability to pay, and the ones left behind that don't take the $300 anyway couldn't afford to pay off their balance."

American Express' offer is only valid for customers who receive a mailing with a registration code from the company, and was advertised as a way for people to "simplify your finances."

The company also warned consumers may lose rewards points by enrolling in the offer.

Shares of American Express were recently down 69 cents, or 5.3%, at $12.29 on a day of another broad decline for equities. The stock is down 70% since September.

-By Aparajita Saha-Bubna, Dow Jones Newswires; 617-654-6729; aparajita.saha- bubna@dowjones.com

-By Lauren Pollock, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5964; lauren.pollock@ dowjones.com

Cuomo To Thain: Open Wide

The next time John Thain speaks to lawyers from the New York Attorney General's office, he'll likely have to talk.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo on Monday filed a motion to force Thain, the besieged former chief executive of Merrill Lynch, to speak about the timing and nature of more than $3.6 billion in bonuses Merrill granted to its employees ahead of its takeover by Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ).

Thain resigned late in January under pressure from Chief Executive Ken Lewis of Bank of America. (See "Thain Shouldn't Be Surprised."). Cuomo last week subpoenaed Lewis.

Thain on Thursday refused to answer questions about bonuses, leaving him a short reprieve that sources said will likely last only a few days.

"This probably will be ruled on by the end of the week," a source familiar with the matter said. Thain's next move is that he can oppose the motion, delaying any proceedings for an indeterminate amount of time.

According to court filings, Thain refused to answer questions about bonuses for all but five employees at Merrill. Thain claimed his refusal to answer these questions "was based on an instruction from Bank of America." Cuomo contends that Bank of America, Thain's former employer, has no authority to issue such an instruction.

The attorney general, in court documents, said Thain "offered no legitimate basis for his refusal."

The source close to the matter said beyond the motion compelling Thain to testify, a provision accusing Bank of America with obstructing the attorney general's investigation was an intentional "shot across the bow" warning the bank to avoid any mingling in state affairs.

The Merrill Lynch purchase has been a disaster for Bank of America. When the all-stock deal was arranged in September, it valued Merrill at $44.0 billion. Now, the combined company is worth only $26.0 billion, and Bank of America shares have fallen to $4.00 from $27.40 at the time.

U.S. Stocks Fall, Sending Market Below Lowest Close Since 1997

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its lowest close in 12 years, as concern that the deepening recession will erode earnings offset the government’s pledge to give more capital to banks.

Hewlett-Packard Co. and Intel Corp. slid at least 4.6 percent as Morgan Stanley said technology stocks are the most vulnerable among economically sensitive industries. Nucor Corp. helped lead a decline in steelmakers after UBS AG said the group has increased output too quickly. Bank of America Corp. rose 9.5 percent and Citigroup Inc. climbed 19 percent as concern eased that the U.S. government will seize control of the lenders.

The S&P 500 lost 2.9 percent to 747.64 at 3:34 p.m. in New York, below its lowest close since April 1997. The six-day losing streak in the U.S. stock benchmark ranks as the longest since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 207.48 points, or 2.8 percent, to 7,158.19, below its lowest close since October 1997. The Russell 2000 Index lost 3.1 percent.

“Many investors simply can’t contemplate any more stock market risk in their portfolios,” said Fritz Meyer, the Denver- based senior market strategist for Invesco Aim, which oversees $357 billion. “Sentiment in the market is very weak and negative.”

Bank of America and Citigroup, each with losses exceeding 65 percent this year, have dragged the S&P 500 to a 17 percent decline in 2009, the worst start on record. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner failed to assuage investor concerns with an $787 billion economic stimulus plan comprised of tax breaks and government spending.

Stress Tests

Financial shares led the market higher at the open, rising as much as 4.6 percent collectively, after U.S. regulators said they will begin examining which banks have enough capital to survive a deeper recession. Banks that need more funds after so- called stress tests and cannot raise the money from private investors will be able to tap taxpayer funds.

Losses in shares of Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and AK Steel Holding Corp. pushed a group of raw-materials producers in the S&P 500 to a 5 percent loss, the most among 10 industries.

Steelmakers need to limit supply to support a “sustained recovery,” said UBS analyst Andrew Snowdowne in a research report. He cut his rating on ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, to “neutral” from “buy,” while SSAB Svenskt Staal AB, the largest supplier of high-tensile steel, was reduced to “sell” from “neutral.”

Morgan Stanley strategist Jason Todd advised clients to remain “underweight” technology and raw-materials companies as the global economy continues to deteriorate.

‘Sell the Rally’

“Sell the recent rally,” Todd wrote. “Tech is a momentum sector where generally valuations alone are not enough to drive outperformance if earnings momentum is negative and valuations are just ‘fair.’”

The S&P 500 Information Technology Index, which has lost 8.1 percent this year for the second-best performance among 10 industries, fell 3.8 percent today.

Hewlett-Packard, the world’s largest personal-computer maker, declined 5.3 percent to $29.60 for a fifth straight day of losses. Intel, the biggest chipmaker, fell 5.3 percent to $12.10.

“We’re still being governed by how deep the recession be,” said Mike Ryan, head of wealth management research for the Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc. “There just don’t seem to be any clear signs that some of the problems have run their course.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.3 percent today and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.9 percent. Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were little changed at 2.80 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data, as the government prepared to sell a record amount of notes this week.

Health-Care Retreat

Humana Inc. fell the most since April 1999 after the U.S. government proposed fee increases of less than 1 percent to companies providing subsidized health coverage for the elderly.

S&P 500 health-care stocks collectively lost 2.3 percent. Humana tumbled 25 percent to $30.54 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The second-largest provider of U.S.-funded health insurance said the new rates, scheduled for 2010, would have a “significant adverse impact.”

The fastest reduction in U.S. dividends since 1955 is depriving investors of the only thing that gave stocks an advantage over government bonds in the last century.

Disappearing Dividends

U.S. equities returned 6 percent a year on average since 1900, inflation-adjusted data compiled by the London Business School and Credit Suisse Group AG show. Take away dividends and the annual gain drops to 1.7 percent, compared with 2.1 percent for long-term Treasury bonds, according to the data.

Governments across the world are stepping up measures to stem the worst global recession since World War II. Bank of America and Citigroup have received a combined $90 billion in U.S. aid in four months.

Federal officials said today that they will make sure banks have enough capital to boost lending and spur economic growth. The joint statement from regulators, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury, promised they will stand “firmly behind the banking system during this period of financial strain.”

Bank of America snapped a six-day losing streak, gaining 33 cents to $4.12. Citigroup rallied 34 cents to $2.29.

Citigroup is in talks with federal officials that may result in the government holding as much as 40 percent of its common stock, the Wall Street Journal said. Executives at the bank would prefer the stake to be closer to 25 percent, the newspaper reported. Citigroup spokesman Jon Diat declined to comment.

“The government measures will prevent the world from going under,” said Rudolf Buxtorf, who manages the equivalent of $114 million at RBS Coutts Bank in Zurich. “We won’t see a bankruptcy or an even worse catastrophe.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Will pension funds suffer the next financial implosion?

If you are troubled by the loss in value in your 401(k) or other retirement account, you have plenty of company. Even professionally managed pensions suffered an average 26 percent loss in 2008, marking the worst recorded year for defined benefit funds, according to Northern Trust Investment Risk and Analytical Services.

Despite the grim results, two radically different retirement profiles have emerged. One is workers with defined benefit plans. These employees are guaranteed monthly payments at retirement based on a set percentage of their last paycheck.

Some 80 percent of public-sector employees and 20 percent of private-­sector employers participate in defined benefit programs. The Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College estimates that 20 million active participants and millions of retirees are enrolled in these retirement programs.

The other group includes workers with 401(k) and other defined contribution accounts. These employees are exposed to market downturns with no set retirement benefits. Last year, many of them were too heavily committed to the stock market, suffering losses between 30 and 40 percent.

"While a bad year for every investor, 2008 was particularly bruising for 401(k) members forced to navigate sophisticated, complex market environments largely on their own, exposed to individual portfolio risks far greater than the pooled risk of professionally managed benefit programs," says Keith Brainard, research director for the National Association of State Retirement Administrators, whose members oversee pension benefits of most state and local government employees.

Employees with 401(k) plans who are five to 10 years from retirement are now faced with the possibility of delaying retirement or drastically reducing their lifestyle when they do.

For younger workers with 10 or more years of potential employment, the hope is that investment markets will rebound in 2009 and that 8 to 10 percent returns will once again prevail.

For employees with defined benefit plans, however, personal retirement plans remain largely on course.

But there are problems here, too. Corporate pension plans are underfunded by $409 billion, according to consulting firm Mercer. The CRR estimates that private firms need to increase contributions by about $90 billion this year, as required by the 2006 Pension Protection Act. The law stipulates that firms must eliminate unfunded pension obligations within a seven-year period. But those restrictions were relaxed in December due to the current economic slump.

In an effort to meet funding requirements, some private companies have already announced layoffs or pension freezes. Others have gone bankrupt. As a result, the CRR estimates employees over 50 years of age who work for companies that have taken these actions will face severely reduced benefits at retirement as they are unlikely to have saved independently of their pension plan.

Public-sector entities are not under the same requirements to supplement their unfunded obligations, and no reliable estimate exists of what additional contributions are required.

"It will take longer than expected for the total cost effect to become clear in public funds," Mr. Brainard says, "as actuarial updates lag market realities and public funds utilize smoothing formulas that extend market losses over extended numbers of years."

Unless the markets suddenly recover and reverse lost profits, defined benefit plans will require dramatic increases in funding by their sponsors. Taxpayers will face footing the bill to finance public-sector retirement programs and shareholders of companies will need to allocate limited dollars from the balance sheets to fund corporate plans.

Neither group is likely to be generous when their own retirement funding is not secure. Redefining a retirement system for all Americans that achieves retirement security may become the next politically explosive issue. Alicia Munnell, director at CRR, has proposed a third tier of mandated retirement savings to augment 401(k) savings and Social Security benefits.

To better understand defined benefit plans, consider these actions:

•Those fortunate to have this type of pension can check its funded status by requesting Form 5500 from your plan administrator or by visiting FreeERISA.com. If there is a shortfall, discuss with your employer what actions it will take to remedy the situation.

•Understand the effect of unfunded pension liabilities on taxpayers. To identify your state's exposure, visit publicfundsurvey.org and review the 2007 Public Fund Survey.

•To see if your plan is covered by government-funded Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation in the event your employer goes bankrupt, visit pbgc.gov.

Fraud Case Shakes a Billionaire’s Caribbean Realm

When Robert Allen Stanford arrived here in the early 1990s, few locals had ever heard of the Texas financier. Today, he dominates so many aspects of life on this sun-drenched Caribbean island that some have taken to calling it “Stanford Land.”

At one point or another, he has owned an airline that many locals and visitors fly on. A local newspaper that covers their goings-on. A vast residential complex where many live. Two restaurants where they eat. And the national stadium where they go to watch cricket, the island’s favorite sport.

But the crown jewel of his domain has long been Stanford International Bank, an offshore institution that attracted billions of dollars of cash from clients around the world — and especially from Latin America — seeking a haven for their wealth.

All the while, he cultivated a comfortable relationship with Antiguan officials. The bank made loans to the Antiguan government, which often used the money to award his companies lucrative construction contracts. To clean up the nation’s image as a dodgy tax haven, the authorities installed him on a new regulatory authority to oversee its banks — including his own.

To some, it felt too cozy.

“There seemed to be a complete breakdown of the normal barriers between the regulator and the regulated,” said Jonathan Winer, who was, at the time, a deputy assistant secretary of state for the United States State Department. “The relationship between the government of Antigua’s political leaders and Stanford seemed weirdly intimate.”

Despite raised eyebrows and occasional investigations of Mr. Stanford — or Sir Allen, as he is called here since he was knighted by the Antiguan government in 2006 — his sway continued to grow. That is, until this week, when the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Stanford International of orchestrating a huge fraud that may have bilked investors of some $8 billion that regulators say cannot be accounted for. The company is referring all calls to the S.E.C.

Mr. Stanford, 58, who has not been charged with any criminal wrongdoing, could not be reached. On Friday, his troubles mounted, as officials here took over his Antiguan bank, following seizures of his operations elsewhere in the world.

Stanford International claims it had about $8 billion in assets, but the Securities and Exchange Commission has only said it has not been able to account for that money. Most of the key players, including Mr. Stanford, failed to appear to testify after the S.E.C. issued a subpeona.

Seeking Answers

The collapse of Mr. Stanford’s empire has left many questions unresolved. What happened to investors’ money, which supposedly was put into high-quality assets? To what extent did his efforts to curry favors with politicians here — and in the United States, where he made contributions to many congressmen — help him elude serious scrutiny despite suspicions raised about his activities in the past? And what was the nature of the fraud that is being alleged — a plain-vanilla securities fraud, as the S.E.C. has charged; a Ponzi scheme; or, given the history of some offshore Caribbean banks, was money laundering also involved?

It may take months to figure out the answers. Few documents have emerged to shed light on Mr. Stanford’s business dealings, which involved high-yielding certificates of deposits sold to investors and housed in the Antigua bank — or even its exact size.

In numerous interviews with former Stanford employees, former American regulators and agency officials, and individuals who had direct dealings with Mr. Stanford over the years, a picture emerges of a man who had visions of grandeur for himself and his company and who knew the key to his success was aligning himself with politically powerful individuals.

At the same time, much of Mr. Stanford’s true background appears elusive.

Born in Mexia, Tex., a rural town of 6,600 about 85 miles southeast of Dallas, he claims to have based his company, Stanford Financial Group, on an insurance firm started by his grandfather Lodis Stanford during the Depression.

Mr. Stanford’s first foray into business, however, was far from finance. He started with a chain of body-building gyms in Waco, Tex. He later claimed to make much of his fortune in the 1980s buying distressed properties in Houston.

A former Stanford employee said that while some properties, such as ones Mr. Stanford picked up in the chic River Oaks area of Houston, made money, many others ended up as busts.

So when Mr. Stanford decided to start his first offshore bank, Guardian International Bank, on the Caribbean island of Montserrat in 1996, he turned to his father, James Stanford, for about $2 million to $4 million in seed money, according to the employee, who declined to be named because he did not want to be drawn into ongoing investigations.

Guardian International sought out wealthy individuals and companies in Mexico, Venezuela and Central America, where people were eager to move money offshore because of onerous regulatory and political regimes.

As Mr. Stanford’s small operation grew, so did his ambitions.

“He talked about wanting to build the largest financial company in the world,” the employee said.

Mr. Stanford, who showed at times a charming demeanor as well as a fiery temper (a former employee said he once threw a glass ash tray against the wall in a fit of anger), began to see himself in more grandiose ways. He came up with a shiny new logo for his company, a Golden Eagle, which he described as a knight’s shield and required all employees to wear.

In the early 1990s, the government of Montserrat cracked down on a number of offshore banks. Guardian was out.

Quickly, Mr. Stanford set his sights on territory he would soon call home, Antigua. His presence on the tiny island, population 85,000, began taking shape when Lester Bird, then the prime minister, saw him as a can-do American with ample cash who could help solve Antigua’s myriad problems. When the local, Bank of Antigua ran into difficulties, for example, Mr. Stanford stepped in in 1990 to take it over.

And when the United States began pressuring the Bird government in the late 1990s to take a firmer hand on alleged money laundering, Prime Minister Bird again asked Mr. Stanford to help.

The government formed a banking advisory board and put Mr. Stanford on it, a move that alarmed American authorities scrutinizing Antigua, who saw an inherent conflict of interest since the board also oversaw Mr. Stanford’s bank. The project was paid for by the Antiguan government by money either lent or granted by Mr. Stanford.

Various United States regulators and agencies were already uneasy about Mr. Stanford. Around 1998, he sent a letter to Jeanette Hyde, then the United States ambassador to Antigua, in which he said he had been investigated by numerous agencies over the years. None of them had turned up anything, he claimed, a vindication he said showed he was a law-abiding citizen.

If anything, the concerns about Antigua and Mr. Stanford’s presence there grew. In 1999, he gave the Drug Enforcement Agency a $3.1 million cashier’s check from Stanford Financial in Antigua after the bank found that a former Mexican drug lord had hid or laundered money there. The same year, however, the American Treasury Department placed Antigua on its money-laundering watch list.

Around the same time, Mr. Stanford and his Houston-based company, Stanford Financial Group, burst onto the scene as players in federal politics. The White House was pushing legislation to make banks crack down on money laundering, so Stanford Financial hired a Washington lobbying firm and began donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republicans and Democrats alike.

Suspicions Grow

The sudden rush of money drew the attention of Public Citizen, which singled out Stanford as a case study of the influence of campaign donations in shaping legislation. Public Citizen concluded that it was “clear” that the Stanford contributions “were aimed at killing the bills,” although broader help turned out to be unnecessary because Texas Republicans simply blocked it from receiving a vote in both chambers. (After the 2001 terrorist attacks, Congress revived and passed the money-laundering proposals. Antigua’s government, meanwhile, had recreated the reform panel and rewrote its banking regulations to Washington’s satisfaction, allowing its name to be stricken from the watch list that same year.)

Still, Mr. Stanford kept his outreach to Washington going. From 1999 to 2008, Stanford Financial dispensed some $4.8 million on lobbying activities — spending $2.2 million of that in 2008 alone — and its employees and its political action committee have given $2.4 million to federal candidates since 2000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Mr. Stanford also wooed lawmakers and their staff with plane rides and “fact-finding” trips to vacation destinations. Many were paid for by the Inter-American Economic Council, a nonprofit organization that he supported.

In recent days, some lawmakers have sought to distance themselves from Mr. Stanford. Among them is Senator Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida, who received more money from Mr. Stanford and his employees than any other lawmaker: $45,900, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Mr. Nelson’s office said he was donating the money to charity.

Another lawmaker, Representative Pete Sessions, Republican of Texas, received $41,375 in such donations. He also went on two council trips, totaling more than $10,000 in expenses, according to Legistorm, a group that tracks lawmaker travel disclosure forms.

Mr. Sessions’s spokeswoman, Emily Davis, told Bloomberg News this week that Mr. Sessions did not know Mr. Stanford personally. But that account was called into question when the Web site Talking Points Memo published a photograph showing the two men talking during a trip to Antigua. (Ms. Davis declined to comment on Friday.)

But Mr. Stanford’s ties to key lawmakers did not completely shield him from the wary eyes of regulators. A routine S.E.C. examination of Stanford’s broker-dealer operations in Houston revealed a major problem — the firm was in violation of net capital requirements, resulting in the company paying a fine of $20,000 in 2007.

In 2006, the agency opened an investigation, but halted it abruptly at the behest of another unnamed agency. The inquiry was reopened late last year, after the alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme involving Bernard L. Madoff came to light. It is unclear why these and other investigations, including by various law enforcement agencies, appeared to have stalled over the years.

Meanwhile, relatively unfettered, Mr. Stanford and his companies continued to attract money to their Antigua-based bank, particularly from Venezuela and other Latin American countries. Venezuelan regulators estimate investors there may have put $2.5 billion into C.D.’s issued by the Antigua-based bank.

Mr. Stanford was quick to offer flights to prospective investors to Antigua on his private jets and maybe a breezy trip through Antigua’s quiet bays on his yacht.

The richest prospective investors would be put up for a few days at Jumby Bay, a 300-acre secluded private island with cottage guest rooms and a nature preserve.

“He’s an ‘everything is big in Texas’ kind of man,” said Winston Derrick, a radio show host and publisher of The Antigua Observer newspaper, the competitor of Mr. Stanford’s own newspaper. “Everything he does is first class.”

Now, Antigua is reeling. Senior government officials declined to comment on their relationships with Mr. Stanford. Many met behind closed doors Friday with executives of several local Stanford companies to gauge how far the Stanford empire would be impacted. “What we are concerned about is the fallout,” said Attorney General Justin Simon. “Although it is only one bank, we need to ensure that the local assets are protected for depositors.”

Madoff's Investors Face Dim Prospects in Court

The securities laws may be your worst enemy if you lost money in the Madoff scam. Investors are suing the feeder funds that channeled their money to Bernard Madoff, accusing the feeders of fraud, negligence or breach of fiduciary duty. On the surface, the cases sound like slam dunks.

They're not. Congress and the courts have spent more than a decade writing and affirming laws that protect companies from irate investors. Those laws may turn out to be feeder fund protection acts.

For investors who lost money, the problems begin with the federal Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA), passed in 1995. It was designed to reduce the number of "frivolous" securities lawsuits filed in federal courts. In essence, it says that investors can't proceed with a case unless they already have facts in hand that strongly suggest a deliberate fraud.

By this standard, it's not enough to claim that the feeders failed to investigate Madoff or issued financial statements later found to be false.

You have to show that the feeder probably knew about the fraudulent scheme, or recklessly disregarded evidence of it, or that the fund violated a written commitment -- say, by investing all of your money with a single manager when it specifically promised not to. You need evidence showing that your claim is strong.

The feeders will argue that they didn't know what Madoff was up to, that they vetted him along with other managers and that everyone was fooled. They have a good chance of getting your case dismissed. "Stupid" isn't a triable offense.

Before the PSLRA, you could have started your case with minimal evidence and used pre-trial discovery to search for more. The feeder would have had to turn over e-mails and other documents that might show it had doubts about the Madoff accounts. Today, however, you need such evidence just to begin, and it's tough to get.

You also can't argue that the feeders are liable because their actions made the fraud possible. In 1994, the Supreme Court ruled that investors can't sue advisers -- investment banks, lawyers, accountants -- that aid and abet a securities fraud (the case was Central Bank of Denver v. First Interstate Bank of Denver). Abettors have get-out-of-jail-free cards.

You might get a break if Madoff made secret kickbacks to one or more feeder funds to bring in more cash. No one knows whether that happened. If it did and Madoff confesses to it, that could be enough evidence of fraud to get you into court, said John C. Coffee, a professor of law at Columbia University.

Most securities fraud cases have to be brought in federal court, but there's potentially a second road to justice. Instead of claiming fraud, investors can claim that the feeders breached their fiduciary duty -- a charge that's tried in state courts. It doesn't require proof of fraudulent intent.

"Getting these cases into state courts is crucial for the litigation because success will depend heavily on getting access to the feeder funds' records," said James Cox, professor of law at Duke University.

There's a hitch. Class actions involving the securities laws and covering more than 50 people can easily be moved by the defendant to the inhospitable federal courts. A case can also be moved for other reasons -- for example, if it was filed in a state other than the one where the feeder has its main office.

More Customers Give Up the Cellphone Contract

Maybe Tony Soprano was onto something. As the lead mobster in the HBO series “The Sopranos,” he and his crew often turned to prepaid cellphones, presumably to avoid wiretaps.

But now these pay-as-you-go phones are winning over fans for different reasons — recession-battered consumers are buying them as a way to cut costs and avoid the lengthy contracts and occasional billing surprises that come with traditional cellphone plans.

“Frugal is the new chic,” said Joy Miller, 33, a piano teacher in Aubrey, Tex. After almost a decade on contract plans with Verizon Wireless, Mrs. Miller and her husband decided this month to test-drive a few prepaid plans, including MetroPCS. “In today’s economy, it’s not cool to pay $120 a month for a phone. It’s a waste of money.”

Although prepaid phones remain a fraction of the overall mobile phone market, sales of the category grew 13 percent in North America last year, nearly three times faster than traditional cellphone plans, according to Pali Research, an investment advisory firm. For the first time in its history, T-Mobile has been signing up more new prepaid customers than traditional ones. And Sprint Nextel is betting that a new flat-rate prepaid plan will help it wring more value from its struggling Nextel unit.

Any stigma attached to the phones — they are a common prop in any show or movie about gangs and spies — is falling away as prices drop and the quality of the phones rises. Prepaid carriers like MetroPCS, Virgin Mobile and Sprint’s Boost Mobile division now offer sleeker handsets, better coverage and more options, from 10-cent-a-minute calling cards that customers refill as needed to $50-a-month, flat-rate plans for chatterboxes who want unlimited calling, Web browsing and text messaging.

The savings can be considerable. An AT&T customer with an Apple iPhone on a traditional plan pays at least $130 a month, excluding taxes and fees, for unlimited calls and Web use. Compared with the $50-a-month, all-inclusive prepaid plans, the iPhone owner pays nearly $1,000 more over the course of a year.

Prepaid customers typically have to buy their phones without the subsidies offered with a contract. When Jerry Cruz, a manager at a tanning salon in Manhattan, switched to T-Mobile’s prepaid service, he paid more than $300 apiece for Sidekicks, which feature keyboards and cameras, for himself and his daughter. But, he said, he saves at least $40 a month compared with his previous contract with Sprint. “Every dollar I save goes towards something else.”

MetroPCS, a carrier based in Dallas that sells only prepaid plans and just added New York and Boston to its network, said it has seen a lot of interest from people who are “cutting the cord,” or abandoning their landlines to use only a mobile phone.

“Over 80 percent of our users use our phone as their primary phone,” said Tom Keys, the company’s chief operating officer. MetroPCS added 520,000 subscribers in the fourth quarter, the biggest quarterly gain in its six-year history. MetroPCS finished 2008 with more than five million subscribers, a 35 percent increase over 2007.

Charlie Bournis, owner of Champion Wireless in Brooklyn, said his prepaid business doubled in the last year while sales of traditional contract plans plunged.

“In 2001, we would sell upwards of 100 contracts per month,” he said. “Now, maybe we do 10.” The store sells 100 prepaid refill cards each week, he said.

Boost Mobile’s $50 unlimited-everything prepaid plan, introduced last month, has helped stoke demand, said Mr. Bournis.

“Over the holidays, all of our Boost Mobile handsets were just collecting dirt,” he added. “After they announced the $50 plan, they sold out within a week. It doesn’t make any sense to get a contract anymore.”

Prepaid plans are generally offered in two flavors. Customers can buy pay-as-you-go cards, with $20 providing 60 to 200 minutes of calling time that must be used within a specified period. Some prepaid companies also offer flat-rate monthly plans that resemble traditional plans except that customers pay upfront and have no continuing commitment. Customers can even switch back and forth between the types of prepaid plans depending on their needs.

Wireless carriers are ambivalent about the growing popularity of prepaid services. They would prefer to sign up customers with good credit to long-term contracts. But as the overall mobile phone market becomes more saturated, they are looking for growth wherever they can.

Sprint and T-Mobile, the No. 3 and No. 4 carriers in the country, are particularly aggressive about courting prepaid customers. In the fourth quarter, 355,000 of the 621,000 customers that T-Mobile added were prepaid users.

Prepaid phones are not for everyone, said Peter Pham, chief executive of BillShrink, which offers free analysis of consumers’ cellphone bills and recommends cheaper plans that match their calling patterns. Some carriers, like MetroPCS or Leap Wireless International’s Cricket, have limited networks or charge extra for roaming outside regional zones.

The trick, he said, is for consumers to figure out their calling needs and pick the plan that make sense. “Saving $15 to $20 a month is a big deal these days,” Mr. Pham said.

E.U. Leaders Turn to I.M.F. Amid Financial Crisis

The leaders of Germany, Britain, France and other European nations called Sunday for the resources of the International Monetary Fund to double, to $500 billion, to help head off new problems in countries already hit hard by the global economic and financial crisis.

Eyeing a contagion that is rapidly spreading to eastern Europe and even countries that use the euro, the leaders highlighted the crisis-prevention role of the I.M.F., an institution whose relevance to the current global economy seemed in doubt only a few years ago.

In Germany, a growing unease that the crisis is about to strike close to home has contributed to a shift in the country’s reluctance to bankroll efforts to ease the financial crisis — whether in the form of bank bailouts or stimulus packages — for fear of paying for other countries’ mistakes.

German officials appear to have concluded that their own economy, underpinned until recently by booming exports, cannot stay afloat if its neighbors crash. Also, international officials from the I.M.F. and the World Bank have argued strongly in private to German officials that Berlin was underestimating the extent to which the crisis was tearing at the hard-fought economic integration of Europe.

In eastern Europe, currencies have tumbled sharply against the euro as financial markets bid up the odds of an all-out collapse along the lines of Asian countries in the late 1990s. Already, Hungary and Latvia, both European Union members that do not use the euro, have gotten rescue packages from the I.M.F. and the European Union.

And among the countries that use the euro, particularly Greece and Spain, financial chaos has meant that government borrowing costs have grown in relation to stalwarts like Germany.

The French president, Nicholas Sarkozy, endorsed support for fellow European countries on Sunday, while warning that those in need of help will have to revamp policies.

“If someone needs solidarity they can count on their partners,” Mr. Sarkozy said at the conclusion of the economic summit meeting here. “Their partners also need to count on them to follow certain basic rules.”

Last week Peer SteinbrĂ¼ck, the German finance minister, suggested that Germany would help finance rescues if necessary, despite European treaties designed to promote fiscal self-reliance.

Those developments foreshadow difficulties this year for countries that must borrow on international capital markets to refinance old debt and raise fresh cash.

Between expressions of solidarity and a newfound emphasis on the I.M.F., the European leaders appeared to be corralling the resources, both political and financial, that would allow bailouts of additional European countries if needed. Economists believe the presence of a credible rescue framework would convince financial markets to ease pressure on the countries, eliminating the need for emergency action.

Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said the shift in Berlin and Europe more generally “opens the door to German dominance” of politics in the 27-nation European Union since its financial heft is likely to become vital for weaker neighbors as the crisis drags on.

“The Germans are now in the position to say ‘I’ll rescue you, but you better follow the rules,’ ” Mr. Gros said. “We are at the beginning of a new game.”

European leaders in Berlin also directed their finance ministers to study the creation of a common bond issue among the 16 countries that use the euro, a move that would partially extend Germany’s sterling credit rating to its shakier neighbors.

The meeting, which also included leaders from Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, the current holder of the European Union’s rotating presidency, was intended to hammer out a common European position ahead of the April meeting of the G-20, the group of industrialized economies and developing countries, in London.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

US, Canada pledge cooperation in combatting global recession

President Barack Obama, on his first foreign trip since he took office Jan 20, said Thursday the US and Canada had a shared commitment to economic recovery and would also jointly act to strengthen the ailing North American car industry.

"The people of North America are hurting, and that is why our governments are acting," Obama said at a joint news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. "We know that the financial crisis is global and so our response must be global."

Obama said the US and Canada were working closely together bilaterally and within the G8 and G20 - two blocs made up of the world's largest economies - to see how to restore confidence in financial markets.

Like much of the world, both nations are battling a severe recession. In Canada, the world's eighth-largest economy, the unemployment rate in January soared to a four-year high of 7.2 percent. That rate was at 7.6 percent in the US, the highest since 1992.

Harper said he and Obama agreed that Canada and the US "must work closely to counter the global economic recession by implementing mutually beneficial stimulus measures".

"We know, as a small economy, we can't recover without recovery in the United States," he said.

Canada is the US' largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries valued at $1.5 billion a day - making it the world's largest commercial relationship. Harper said Canada's economic stimulus package actually removed duties on some imported goods.

While Obama has vowed to combat protectionist impulses, Canada had expressed concerns about the "buy American" provision in the $787-billion US economic stimulus package signed into law this week.

The US measure, which bars foreign manufacturing goods from being used in government projects, was modified in the final bill to assure it doesn't break existing trade agreements.

"I know some aspects of trade invariably cause political concerns," Harper said. "But nobody should think for a minute that trade between Canada and the United States is anything but a benefit."

Obama said he brought up the idea of including labour and environmental provisions within the main body of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). But he also reaffirmed that "now is a time when we've got to be very careful about any signs of protectionism".

"As obviously one of the largest economies in the world, it's important for us to make sure that we showing leadership in the belief that trade ultimately is beneficial to all countries," he said.

NAFTA had threatened to become an acrimonious issue during this visit. On the presidential campaign trail, Obama had said that the US would threaten to pull out of NAFTA unless Canada and Mexico agreed to strengthen labour and environmental protections. But he has softened his stance since taking office.

US annual inflation wiped out, deflation looms

Annual US inflation disappeared in January in the weakest reading in more than a half century, data showed Thursday, stoking debate over deflation risks in the recession-mired economy.

The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI) for last month was unchanged from January 2008 under the effect of a precipitous fall in energy prices from July record peaks.

It was the weakest annual inflation reading since August 1955, the department said, coming as the country entered its second year of recession. Consumer demand has tanked in the face of sharply rising unemployment and the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Last year CPI had ended virtually flat, rising a mere 0.1 percent in December from a year ago. The smallest calendar year increase since 1954 highlighted plummeting consumer demand, and followed 4.1 percent inflation in 2007.

On a monthly basis, the Labor Department said CPI rose for the first time in six months, by 0.3 percent in January, matching most analysts's forecast.

The monthly CPI headline number had fallen 0.8 percent in December. The last time it climbed was in July, by 0.7 percent, when crude oil prices hit all-time highs above 147 dollars a barrel.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent in January from December, when it was flat. The number was slightly higher than analysts' forecast of a 0.1 percent rise. On a 12-month basis, core inflation was up 1.7 percent.

Analysts were divided over whether the Labor Department report pointed to risks of deflation, a pernicious downward spiral of falling prices, earnings and economic activity that is difficult to counter.

The Federal Reserve this week projected the economy would shrink in 2009 by as much as 1.3 percent, following a 3.8 percent contraction in the 2008 fourth quarter.

"The price rises may allay deflation fears temporarily, but they probably reflect a temporary bounce at the start of the year after severe discounting during the holiday season. Deflation risks remain," said Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight.

But Dean Maki at Barclays Capital Research focused on the rise in core inflation: "The report should put to rest some of the fear that the weak core readings of the past few months suggested that core deflation was a possibility in the near term."

Maki nonetheless emphasized that core inflation was expected to slow on a year-over-year basis in coming months "as slack in the economy builds."

Energy prices led the January rise in consumer prices, climbing 1.7 percent after falling 9.3 percent in December, driven by a 6.0 percent surge in gasoline prices.

Compared with a year ago, energy prices were a hefty 20.4 percent lower and gasoline prices were down 40.4 percent.

Consumer food prices edged up 0.1 percent on a monthly basis and were 5.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Disinflation, a decrease in the inflation rate, appeared to be the overriding trend, despite the gain in energy prices.

"Disinflationary pressures slowed down with the modest rebound in energy prices. However, inflation should continue to decrease in the coming months, turning negative for most of 2009," said Elsa Dargent, an analyst at Natixis.

Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, also saw prices continuing to fall as the economy sinks further into the recession that began in December 2007.

"Disinflation pressure is still intense and will stay that way for some time," Shepherdson said.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported US wholesale prices -- inflation in the pipeline -- rose 0.8 percent in January after five months of decline, driven by higher energy prices, but were down 1.0 percent from a year ago.

US, China pledge economic cooperation

The United States and China have agreed to work together to stabilise the global economy and fight climate change. The pledge came out of talks in Beijing between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. Clinton and Jiechie also said a regular bilateral dialogue on economic issues would be expanded to include security concerns. Jiechi said China wanted to see its foreign cash reserves invested safely and wished to continue working with the US. Clinton thanked China for its confidence in US treasury bonds. China, with foreign exchange reserves of about two trillion dollars, is the world's largest holder of US government debt. Clinton's visit to China is the fourth, and final, stop on her tour of Asia that has also taken her to South Korea, Indonesia and Japan. It is her first trip abroad as secretary of state.

Obama orders US tax cut rollout

US President Barack Obama ordered the Treasury to implement tax cuts for 95 per cent of Americans, fulfilling a campaign pledge he hopes will help jolt the economy out of recession.

The tax cuts are part of a $US787 billion ($1.2 trillion) economic recovery plan passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress over Republican opposition. The aim is to put more money in the pockets of Americans and stimulate the economy by increasing consumer spending.

"I'm pleased to announce that this morning the Treasury Department began directing employers to reduce the amount of taxes withheld from pay cheques, meaning that by April 1st, a typical family will begin taking home at least $US65 more every month," Mr Obama said in his weekly radio address.

"Never before in our history has a tax cut taken effect faster or gone to so many hard-working Americans," he said.

With tens of thousands of Americans losing their jobs in the midst of a global economic meltdown, Mr Obama has said fixing the US economy is his top priority. He has acknowledged that his success or failure in that will define his presidency.

Mr Obama campaigned for the White House last year on a pledge to roll back his predecessor George W Bush's tax cuts on the wealthy few and implement a cut for 95 per cent of Americans.

His announcement came a day after one of his top economic advisers, former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, said the global economy may be deteriorating even faster than during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Since being sworn into office on January 20, Mr Obama has sought to reassure Americans that his Government is tackling the economic crisis boldly and swiftly - holding near-daily events to announce measures to stem mortgage foreclosures, prop up failing banks, rescue the ailing auto industry and drive his stimulus package through Congress.

The measures have received a mixed early reaction from gloomy financial markets uncertain whether they will succeed in arresting the downward economic spiral.

The package includes $US282 billion in tax cuts - the Republicans pushed unsuccessfully for more - and $US120 billion for public works projects including highway and rail projects.

'Hazardous road ahead'

"But as important as it was that I was able to sign this plan into law, it is only a first step on the road to economic recovery," Mr Obama said in his address.

"None of this will be easy. The road ahead will be long and full of hazards. But I'm confident that we, as a people, have the strength and wisdom to carry out this strategy and overcome this crisis," he said.

His announcement on the tax cuts capped a week that saw him sign the stimulus package into law and announce new measures to help families facing foreclosure and those struggling to make mortgage payments.

He will step up the pace next week when he holds a summit at the White House on Monday to look at how to rein in the country's ballooning deficit and bring Government spending under control as the economy starts to recover.

Lawmakers, academics and business leaders have been invited to share their ideas on how to cut the $US1 trillion deficit that Mr Obama inherited along with two costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mr Obama will follow the summit with a major speech on Tuesday to a joint session of Congress in which he will lay out his domestic and foreign policy agenda. Inevitably, the economic crisis will loom large.

After a short breather on Wednesday to host a concert honouring Stevie Wonder, Mr Obama on Thursday will unveil his proposed budget for the 2010 fiscal year, which will reflect the big increases in public spending as part of the economic recovery plan.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Did Madoff Have Help?

The story goes that Bernard Madoff acted alone, but now the trustee managing his former empire has hinted that others were in on it.

Bernard Madoff, who stands accused of a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, didn't trade for customer accounts for more than a decade and didn't separate the activities of his broker dealer from his investment advisory business, according to a court-appointed trustee.

The finding may support those who say Madoff, whose firm was once among the largest market makers on Wall Street, could not have acted alone in pulling off the alleged fraud.

Irving Picard, the trustee liquidating Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, said Friday that his investigation so far showed no divide between the market maker and the investment adviser. Madoff, who was arrested in December after allegedly confessing to his two sons, is said to have insisted he acted alone.

"We have found nothing to suggest there was any difference" between the broker-dealer and the adviser, Picard told a crowd of Madoff investors in U.S. bankruptcy court in Manhattan. "It was all one."

Given the length of the alleged fraud, which is said to have been carried out for at least 30 years, and the complexities of handling and distributing monthly statements for potentially thousands of investors, the idea that one person acted alone has been seen as dubious.

The investment adviser, where the fraud is alleged to have occurred, operated on a different floor in the office building where the Madoff firm was located, and was kept closely guarded. While more than 160 employees were registered brokers with the market-making operation upstairs, regulatory documents indicate that no more than five employees worked with the investment adviser. Of course, all documents filed by Madoff with regulators are now suspect.

The Madoff firm was filled with relatives and close associates of Madoff, including his two sons, his niece and his brother. Prosecutors and those associated with the liquidation of the firm are leaving no stone uncovered, investors were assured Friday, but the criminal investigation needs to proceed before many of the assets held personally by Madoff can be pursued.

Madoff remains on house arrest, with bail secured by his wife's properties, until the case is resolved.

"We are operating out of a crime scene," Picard said. In addition to the headquarters in Manhattan, Madoff's firm had a warehouse in Queens, where more than 7,000 boxes have been cataloged, and an undisclosed "back up" site. "We're getting a feel for how this operation worked."

Picard is trying to sort out what assets at the firm can be returned to the more than 8,000 investors who have lost money. So far, 2,350 claims are in, and he urged investors on Friday to make claims if they had not already done so. The trustee identified $946 million of assets that could be returned to investors, a pittance compared to the scope of the alleged fraud.

Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, the market-maker operation, is being put out for bid and could be sold to recover more money for investors, Picard said Friday. A deal could come within weeks.

Among other things, the trustee has tried to cut costs, eliminating dozens of jobs to save $300,000 a week in costs. About 45 employees have remained at the market-making operation to keep it running. Picard is also studying whether and how he could sell artwork owned by the firm, which was seized by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in December.

Subpoenas for documents, correspondence and other information about the activities of the Madoff firm have been sent out to various parties, including the Chicago Board of Trade and the CME Clearing House.

The progress in the case is no comfort to the thousands who lost money as a result of the Madoff affair, some of whom say they lost everything. The Securities Investors Protection Corp. caps claims at $500,000. Those who took profits out of their Madoff investments are subject to a claw back, Picard said. None of those reported returns were real over the course of the decades-long scheme.

The most investors may be able to hope for is a recovery of a small portion of their investments, the trustee warned Friday, because to get to a fair distribution of what assets can be found means "sharing the pain."